新华书店吧【视频】- 十年后的你会和现在有什么不同吗? TED演讲-寰兴留学移民

【视频】| 十年后的你会和现在有什么不同吗? TED演讲-寰兴留学移民

演说者:Dan Gilbert
“人类还处在发展变化的过程中,却错误的以为他们不会发生任何改变了.”Dan Gilbert分享了一种被他最近称作“历史错觉的终止”现象的研究,描述的是我们会不自觉地认为若干年后的自己跟现在不会有什么不同。但是——事实并非如此。

At every stage of our lives we make decisions that will profoundly influence the lives of the people we're going to become, and then when we become those people, we're not always thrilled with the decisions we made.
So young people pay good money to get tattoos removed that teenagers paid good money to get. Middle-aged people rushed to divorce people who young adults rushed to marry.Older adults work hard to lose what middle-aged adults worked hard to gain. On and on and on.The question is, as a psychologist, that ascinates me is, why do we make decisions that our future selves so often regret?
所以年轻人花很多钱洗去当还是青少年时花了很多钱做上的纹身。中年人急着跟年轻时迫不及待想结婚的人离婚。老年人很努力的挥霍着作为中年人时不停工作所赚的钱。如此没完没了。作为一个心理学家大宋惊世传奇 ,让我感兴趣的问题是,为什么我们会做出让自己将来常常后悔的决定?
Now, I think one of the reasons —I'll try to convince you today — is that we have a fundamental misconception about the power of time. Every one of you knows that the rate of change slows over the human lifespan, that your children seem to change by the minute but your parents seem to change by the year.
But what is the name of this magical point in life where change suddenly goes from a gallop to a crawl? Is it teenage years? Is it middle age橡皮轮胎杀手 ? Is it old age? The answer, it turns out, for most people, is now, wherever now happens to be.
What I want to convince you today is that all of us are walking around with an illusion, an illusion that history, our personal history, has just come to an end, that we have just recently become the people that we were always meant to be and will be for the rest of our lives.
Let me give you some data to back up that claim. So here's a study of change in people's personal values over time. Here's three values. Everybody here holds all of them, but you probably know that as you grow, as you age, the balance of these values shifts.
So how does it do so? Well, we asked thousands of people. We asked half of them to predict for us how much their values would change in the next 10 years, and the others to tell us how much their values had changed in the last 10 years.
And this enabled us to do a really interesting kind of analysis彩音心爱, because it allowed us to compare the predictions of people, say, 18 years old, to the reports of people who were 28卓琳妹妹, and to do that kind of analysis throughout the lifespan.
Here's what we found. First of all, you are right, change does slow down as we age, but second, you're wrong, because it doesn't slow nearly as much as we think. At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set摘花的英文, people vastly underestimated how much change they would experience over the next 10 years.
We call this the "end of history" illusion. To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect马岱字什么, you can connect these two lines, and what you see here is that 18-year-olds anticipate changing only as much as 50-year-olds actually do.
我们把这叫做“历史终止”错觉。为了让你们了解这种影响有多大, 你们可以把这两条线连接起来,你们现在看到的是18岁的人群预期的改变仅仅和50岁的人群实际经历的一样。
Now it's not just values. It's all sorts of other things. For example, personality. Many of you know that psychologists now claim that there are five fundamental dimensions of personality: neuroticism, openness to experience, agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness.
Again, we asked people how much they expected to change over the next 10 years, and also how much they had changed over the last 10 years, and what we found, well, you're going to get used to seeing this diagram over and over, because once again the rate of change does slow as we age, but at every age, people underestimate how much their personalities will change in the next decade.
And it isn't just ephemeral things like values and personality. You can ask people about their likes and dislikes, their basic preferences. For example, name your best friend, your favorite kind of vacation, what's your favorite hobby, what's your favorite kind of music. People can name these things.
We ask half of them to tell us, "Do you think that that will change over the next 10 years?" and half of them to tell us, "Did that change over the last 10 years?"
我们让他们当中的一半人告诉我们,“你认为这在未来10年内会改变吗?”让另一半告诉我们,新华书店吧 “这个在过去十年内变化了吗?”
And what we find, well, you've seen it twice now, and here it is again: people predict that the friend they have now is the friend they'll have in 10 years华府新桃园 , the vacation they most enjoy now is the one they'll enjoy in 10 years, and yet, people who are 10 years older all say, "Eh, you know, that's really changed."
我们的发现是,嗯,这个图你们已经看过2次了,再展示一次:人们推测他们现在的朋友在未来10年中还会是他们的朋友,他们喜欢的度假之地在未来10年内还会是他们喜欢的地方,然而第四野战军,年长10岁的人都会说:“嗯,你知道,这确实不一样了雷恩那 。”
Does any of this matter? Is this just a form of misprediction that doesn't have consequences? No, it matters quite a bit, and I'll give you an example of why. It bedevils our decision-making in important ways.
Bring to mind right now for yourself your favorite musician today and your favorite musician 10 years ago. I put mine up on the screen to help you along. Now we asked people to predict for us, to tell us how much money they would pay right now to see their current favorite musician perform in concert 10 years from now, and on average, people said they would pay 129 dollars for that ticket.
And yet, when we asked them how much they would pay to see the person who was their favorite 10 years ago perform today, they say only 80 dollars. Now, in a perfectly rational world, these should be the same number, but we overpay for the opportunity to indulge our current preferences because we overestimate their stability.
Why does this happen? We're not entirely sure湖羊吧, but it probably has to do with the ease of remembering versus the difficulty of imagining. Most of us can remember who we were 10 years ago, but we find it hard to imagine who we're going to be, and then we mistakenly think that because it's hard to imagine枪口朝下 , it's not likely to happen.
Sorry, when people say "I can't imagine that," they're usually talking about their own lack of imagination, and not about the unlikelihood of the event that they're describing.
很遗憾,当人们说“我可想象不出来”,他们通常是在表达他们缺乏想象力乜野系恋爱 ,而不是他们所描述的不可能发生的事情。
The bottom line is, time is a powerful force. It transforms our preferences. It reshapes our values. It alters our personalities. We seem to appreciate this fact,邢雅晨 but only in retrospect. Only when we look backwards do we realize how much change happens in a decade.
总而言之,时间是一种强大的力量。它改变了我们的喜好。它重塑了我们的价值观迟志强近况 。它改变了我们的人格。我们似乎会感激这个事实,但是只在回想过去的时候。只有在我们回首过去的时候我们才会认识到在过去的十年里发生了多么大的变化。
It's as if, for most of us, the present is a magic time. It's a watershed on the timeline. It's the moment at which we finally become ourselves. Human beings are works in progress that mistakenly think they're finished. The person you are right now is as transient, as fleeting and as temporary as all the people you've ever been. The one constant in our life is change.Thank you.
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